The EU’s recent parliamentary elections have left climate advocates uncertain. While the centrist parties retained a majority, gains by right-leaning groups may make advancing new climate policies more difficult, though current policies remain secure, experts report.
The European Parliament’s rightward shift signals potential roadblocks to passing ambitious new climate measures, as many right-wing parties have voiced skepticism of the EU’s Green Deal. While this change poses challenges, it is unlikely to roll back existing green legislation, including renewable energy targets and carbon pricing. As Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland's secretary of state for climate, noted, “All new policies will be harder to pass, but backsliding is very unlikely.”
Existing Policies Safe, but New Goals Face Uncertainty
Bas Eickhout, head of the European Parliament's Greens group, acknowledged the challenge ahead:
“I don’t think we’ll be rolling back on climate policies. But it will be more complicated to get new policies off the ground.”
The fate of upcoming EU climate initiatives largely depends on the incoming European Commission and its stance on environmental regulations.
EU member states are already bound by several climate targets designed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Among these are renewable energy benchmarks and a carbon pricing framework that has led to a 30% reduction in EU emissions since 1990. These policies, firmly embedded in EU law, are unlikely to see significant reversal. Mats Engström of the European Council on Foreign Relations notes that while certain legislative components may be tweaked, overall progress toward the EU’s climate objectives will continue.
Impact on Renewable Energy and Green Investment
Despite assurances regarding current policies, uncertainty over future green legislation is already impacting markets. Shares in renewable energy companies, such as wind turbine manufacturers Vestas and Nordex, dropped following the election results. Analysts warn that this shift may slow the green energy transition by affecting investor confidence in the sector.
A prominent target of criticism from right-leaning groups has been the 2035 EU ban on new petrol and diesel cars, a policy with a 2026 review that allows for potential amendments. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently criticized this policy, and several EU diplomats report pressure on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to ease this regulation.
Shift in Climate Rhetoric
Compared to the 2019 EU election, where climate change was a central concern, the 2024 election focused more on immigration, economic issues, and industrial competition with the U.S. and China. Many politicians across the spectrum pledged support for local industries, including climate-friendly projects. This could lead to more investment in European-made green technologies but under the banner of “industrial competitiveness” rather than direct climate action.
Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of Strategic Perspectives, a think tank, predicts this shift in tone:
“If it’s about scaling up manufacturing of green technologies here in Europe, then that may be done in the name of ‘industrial competitiveness’ rather than for the climate
.”
Outlook on EU’s Climate Goals
The EU’s climate targets for 2030 and 2050 remain firmly in place, with strong support from member states to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030. To meet these goals, the European Investment Bank estimates a need for €1 trillion in annual green investments, a 356-billion-euro increase from the previous decade.
As Europe continues to push toward its 2050 net-zero target, the current rightward tilt in the EU Parliament underscores the need for climate policies that balance economic concerns with green commitments. Although the Green Deal may be slowed, the EU’s long-term commitment to climate action appears resilient, maintaining Europe’s role as a global leader in sustainable policy.