Washington’s Sudan Dilemma Why a Sudan Arms Embargo Cannot Substitute for Civilian Protection

Washington’s Sudan Dilemma Why a Sudan Arms Embargo Cannot Substitute for Civilian Protection
Credit: TAR/Julian Pecquet

The United States is pushing the UN Security Council to expand the existing Darfur-focused sanctions regime into a nationwide Sudan arms embargo. The proposed measure would extend restrictions across the country, explicitly cover drones and related technologies, increase monitoring capacity and strengthen scrutiny of embargo violations, asset freezes and travel bans. The urgency comes from the fact that the old framework, rooted in the Darfur crisis of the mid-2000s, no longer fits a war that has spread through much of Sudan and is increasingly shaped by drone warfare, illicit arms flows, foreign support networks and attacks on civilian infrastructure.

The existing Darfur arms embargo is due to expire on 12 September 2026. Washington’s proposal is therefore not merely a technical adjustment. It is an attempt to redefine the international response to Sudan’s conflict by accepting that the war is no longer a contained Darfur emergency. It is a nationwide crisis involving the SAF, the RSF, civilian communities, neighbouring states, foreign sponsors and humanitarian agencies struggling to operate in a rapidly collapsing environment.

The central weakness of the debate, however, is the suggestion that a broader Sudan arms embargo can itself protect civilians. An embargo can make arms transfers more costly, expose financiers and create legal grounds for targeted sanctions. It can also signal that international actors will not accept the normalisation of drone strikes, siege tactics and violence against civilians. But it cannot by itself ensure food deliveries, keep hospitals open, protect women from conflict-related sexual violence or stop armed groups from looting aid warehouses. A meaningful State Policy on Sudan requires an arms-control measure to be joined to humanitarian access, financial pressure on enablers, accountability for atrocities and a credible political transition.

The clearest expression of this reality came during the UN Security Council debate. Tom Fletcher:

“The tragedy of Sudan is not that we do not know what to do, it is that we have not yet found the will to do it.”

The crisis is not primarily caused by a shortage of reports, meetings or diplomatic formulas. It is driven by the failure of states with influence over weapons, money, air routes and regional alliances to use that influence to protect Sudanese civilians.

A War Transformed by Drones

The argument for a broader Sudan arms embargo rests on how the conflict has changed. Sudan’s war began as a struggle for power between the SAF, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. But it has since become a wider contest involving fragmented armed groups, cross-border supply chains and military technologies that allow violence to strike civilians far from conventional battle lines.

Drones are now at the centre of this transformation. UN figures presented in August showed that around 1,400 civilian deaths had been documented between January and June 2026, with approximately 1,100 linked to drone strikes. Earlier UN human-rights reporting found that drones accounted for more than 80 percent of recorded civilian deaths linked to the conflict between January and April. These numbers should be understood as documented minimums rather than definitive totals because active fighting, limited access and weakened public institutions make comprehensive documentation extremely difficult.

Drone attacks have hit markets, schools, fuel stations, water systems and electricity infrastructure. This matters because the destruction of essential civilian infrastructure turns military violence into a broader method of social collapse. When water networks are destroyed, disease risks rise. When power systems are hit, hospitals cannot function. When markets are bombed, food insecurity deepens. When schools close, an entire generation loses education and protection. The Human Rights consequences of drone warfare therefore extend far beyond immediate death tolls.

Rosemary DiCarlo:

“The sophisticated weaponry used continues to point to ongoing external support to both parties.”

This statement is important because it avoids reducing Sudan’s war to a purely domestic contest. It acknowledges that the SAF and RSF do not operate in isolation. External weapons, financing networks, political relationships and logistics systems have helped sustain a conflict that Sudanese civilians cannot end on their own.

Washington’s proposal to explicitly include unmanned aerial systems in the embargo is therefore justified. A sanctions regime that fails to cover the weapons most associated with civilian deaths is no longer aligned with the reality of the conflict. But the credibility of the measure will depend on whether international institutions can trace drone components, aircraft routes, commercial intermediaries, financial channels and networks operating across Sudan’s borders.

Human Rights Cannot Remain Secondary

Sudan’s humanitarian disaster is so extensive that the arms embargo debate must be measured against the condition of civilians, not merely the military balance between the SAF and RSF. Around 13 million people have fled their homes, including an estimated 8.7 million internally displaced people across Sudan’s 18 states. More than two thirds of the population needs life-saving assistance, while approximately 19.5 million people face acute food insecurity. Different UN-linked sources use different reporting periods and methodologies, but they all point to a crisis of historic scale.

The suffering is particularly severe in areas that have become new or intensified front lines. In North Kordofan, fighting pushed around 15,000 families into El Obeid from mid-July. Blue Nile, which already hosts more than 370,000 displaced people, has seen renewed violence and further movement toward the Ethiopian border. The spread of conflict toward Chad and Ethiopia demonstrates why Sudan can no longer be treated as an isolated internal emergency. It is becoming a regional security and displacement crisis, with consequences for fragile neighbouring states already facing their own economic, environmental and political pressures.

The Human Rights impact is even more visible in the documentation of sexual violence. The UN had recorded 838 victims of conflict-related sexual violence since the war began, with women and girls comprising nearly all known victims. Civil-society representatives have stressed that this is not a complete figure. Fear, stigma, insecurity, poor access to health services and the near-collapse of justice institutions mean that many survivors cannot safely report crimes. Violence has reportedly affected 16 of Sudan’s 18 states, illustrating again why a Darfur-only framework is increasingly disconnected from the countrywide reality.

Eva Khair:

“This is a war on civilians: a war in which it is infinitely more dangerous to be a civilian than a soldier.”

Her statement challenges the language often used in international diplomacy, where the war is discussed through military positions, ceasefire mechanisms and the claims of competing armed leaders. For civilians, the conflict is experienced through hunger, displacement, sexual violence, destroyed homes, missing family members, closed schools and failing medical services.

Nearly eight million children are out of school. This figure should not be treated as a secondary social indicator. It is evidence that Sudan’s conflict is destroying the institutions required for eventual recovery. A ceasefire alone would not automatically restore education, rebuild health facilities, return displaced families or provide justice to survivors. That is why a Human Rights-centred policy must include protection for teachers, health workers, local aid providers, women’s groups, journalists and Emergency Response Rooms that have often filled the gap left by state collapse.

The Limits of Equal Treatment

The U.S. approach has provoked resistance because it places the SAF and RSF within the same general framework of responsibility for violence and external arms flows. Massad Boulos:

“The brutality of the war waged by the RSF and SAF has discredited their claims to be legitimate governors of the Sudanese people.”

This is a significant diplomatic position because it rejects the idea that military control, state institutions or claims of national sovereignty automatically create political legitimacy.

That position has an ethical foundation. Both sides have been accused of grave violations against civilians, and both have been linked to the expansion of warfare into civilian spaces. But it has also generated an important political dispute. The SAF-led Sudanese authorities argue that a nationwide arms embargo could weaken the state military more than the RSF, whose supply networks may rely more heavily on informal cross-border channels, intermediaries and illicit routes.

Al-Harith Idriss al-Harith Mohamed:

“Sudan suffers the most from weapons and their illegal flow. However, expanding such a sanctions regime will weaken the protection of civilians.”

The Sudanese government’s argument is that state forces need military capacity to defend territory and civilians from the RSF. It has sought a technical extension of the existing Darfur measures rather than an expansion across Sudan.

This objection cannot simply be dismissed. An embargo that limits formal arms purchases while failing to stop hidden supply networks could create an uneven effect. It could constrain actors using official channels more than armed groups able to exploit smuggling networks, front companies or covert regional relationships. That is the practical enforcement problem at the centre of the Sudan arms embargo debate.

But the SAF argument also has limits. State institutions cannot invoke sovereignty or civilian protection while escaping scrutiny for their own conduct. If military operations conducted by the SAF kill civilians, damage infrastructure or obstruct humanitarian access, then treating the SAF as exempt from accountability would undermine the stated purpose of civilian protection. State legitimacy must be judged not only by formal recognition but also by conduct, respect for Human Rights and willingness to submit to transparent investigation.

Russia and China have opposed a wider sanctions regime, arguing that the SAF and RSF should not be treated as equally responsible for the consequences of weapons use. Vasily Nebenzya:

“It is unacceptable to claim that both sides of the conflict bear equal responsibility for the consequences of weapons use.”

The African elected members of the Security Council—DR Congo, Liberia and Somalia—have also expressed caution about greater reliance on sanctions. Their position emphasises an African Union-supported ceasefire, a Sudanese-led political process and protection against excessive external interference. This view reflects legitimate scepticism about sanctions that are poorly enforced or selectively applied.

Yet the alternative cannot be inertia. Maintaining a narrow embargo that has failed to stop the spread of weapons, drones and foreign involvement would amount to accepting the conflict’s evolution rather than confronting it. The question is not whether sanctions are flawless. They are not. The question is whether the international community can design and enforce them in ways that target the networks sustaining violence rather than only the visible actors on the battlefield.

State Policy Must Target Enablers

The most important flaw in the international response is the gap between humanitarian language and State Policy. Governments routinely call for a ceasefire, humanitarian access and civilian protection. Yet Sudan’s war continues to be fed by weapons, finance, mercenaries, commercial networks and external political relationships. Tom Fletcher:

“The people of Sudan need food, water, and medicine, yet the world sends drones, weapons, and mercenaries.”

The UN’s humanitarian figures reveal the cost of this contradiction. By mid-2026, aid agencies had reached nearly 11 million people with at least one type of assistance, representing 52 percent of the priority target. The UN’s hyper-prioritised humanitarian appeal requested $2.87 billion but was only just over 40 percent funded. The regional refugee response plan for seven neighbouring countries sought $1.59 billion and was merely 17 percent funded.

These figures show that even the humanitarian response is under-resourced. International governments cannot claim that sanctions alone amount to civilian protection when relief operations lack sufficient funding and face obstacles from fighting, drone strikes, bureaucracy, looting and access restrictions. A serious State Policy must finance humanitarian operations while also confronting the military and financial systems that create the need for aid in the first place.

The wider diplomatic process includes the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE in a Quad focused on a humanitarian truce, alongside the African Union, IGAD, Arab League and European Union in broader political efforts. However, mediation cannot succeed if allegations of external support are ignored for diplomatic convenience. The UAE has denied allegations that it supports the RSF, while reporting and rights investigations have also raised concerns about foreign support connected to the SAF. The most defensible position remains that sophisticated weapons point to external support for both sides.

An effective Sudan arms embargo should therefore be accompanied by public identification of sanctions evaders, monitoring of air corridors, investigation of commercial intermediaries, financial restrictions against named perpetrators and penalties for entities supplying prohibited weapons. It should also protect humanitarian exemptions so that medical equipment, food, civilian communications and relief operations are not harmed by overbroad restrictions.

Sudan does need a nationwide arms embargo. But it needs much more than an embargo. It needs a policy that places Human Rights above military alliances, civilian lives above geopolitical manoeuvring and accountability above diplomatic convenience. Unless Washington and its partners target the outside actors enabling the conflict, fund humanitarian operations at the required scale and support a civilian-led political settlement, the embargo may become another expression of concern rather than an instrument capable of changing Sudan’s devastating reality.

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